PITCHER MATCHUP

Logan Gilbert vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Logan Gilbert's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Logan Gilbert's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .288vs RHH xwOBA .291Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Slider 30%Splitter 17%Curveball 9%Cutter 6%Changeup 3%Sinker 1%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Logan Gilbert, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (30% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (17% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 550 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (30% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (17% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (30% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (17% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (30% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (17% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (30% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (17% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MM Marcelo Mayer LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcelo Mayer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (30% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (17% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (30% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (17% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (30% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (17% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 IK Isiah Kiner-Falefa RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isiah Kiner-Falefa
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (30% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (17% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-21 game page →