PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Hart vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Hart's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Hart's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .253vs RHH xwOBA .326Seasons 2026–2025
Sweeper 30%Sinker 24%Slider 14%Splitter 13%Four-Seam Fastball 13%Changeup 6%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Hart, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 602 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 AR Austin Riley RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 MH Michael Harris II LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 380 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 491 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DS Dominic Smith LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Smith
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 JM Jorge Mateo RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorge Mateo
    • Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .238 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-23 game page →