PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Harrison vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Harrison's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Harrison's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .292vs RHH xwOBA .298Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 57%SV 28%Changeup 12%Sinker 2%Cutter 1%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Harrison, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 520 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (28% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (28% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (28% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (28% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (28% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 426 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (28% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (28% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .266
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (28% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (28% usage) projects to .430 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-05 game page →