PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Harrison vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Harrison's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Harrison's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .281vs RHH xwOBA .326Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 57%SV 29%Changeup 11%Sinker 2%Cutter 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Harrison, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .359
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 472 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (29% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 535 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (29% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 522 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (29% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 395 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (29% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 436 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (29% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (29% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (29% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (29% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (29% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.