PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Harrison vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Harrison's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Harrison's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .289vs RHH xwOBA .293Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 57%SV 28%Changeup 12%Sinker 2%Cutter 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Harrison, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (28% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 473 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (28% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .353
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 485 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (28% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 364 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 401 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (28% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (28% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (28% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (28% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (28% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (28% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-11 game page →