PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Harrison vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Harrison's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Harrison's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .280vs RHH xwOBA .326Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 57%SV 29%Changeup 11%Sinker 2%Cutter 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Harrison, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .361
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (29% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (29% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (29% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (29% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (29% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (29% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (29% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (29% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (29% usage) projects to .221 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.