PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Harrison vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Harrison's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Harrison's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .297vs RHH xwOBA .303Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 58%SV 27%Changeup 12%Sinker 2%Cutter 1%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Harrison, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (58% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (27% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (58% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (27% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (58% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (27% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 IH Ian Happ SH .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (58% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 541 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (27% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 MB Michael Busch LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (58% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 504 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (27% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (58% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (27% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (58% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 403 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (27% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (58% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (27% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 MS Matt Shaw RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Shaw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (58% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (27% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-27 game page →