PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Harrison vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Harrison's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Harrison's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .293vs RHH xwOBA .297Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 58%SV 28%Changeup 12%Sinker 2%Cutter 1%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Harrison, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .356
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (58% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (28% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (58% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (28% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .360
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (58% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (28% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 IH Iván Herrera RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (58% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (28% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (58% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 488 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (28% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (58% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (28% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .271
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (58% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (28% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JF José Fermín RHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (58% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (28% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LN Lars Nootbaar LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lars Nootbaar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (58% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (28% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-08 game page →