PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Freeland vs Kansas City Royals

How the Kansas City Royals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Freeland's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Freeland's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .311vs RHH xwOBA .359Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 29%Knuckle Curve 23%Cutter 19%Sweeper 11%Changeup 10%Sinker 8%

How the Kansas City Royals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Kansas City Royals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Freeland, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 SP Salvador Perez RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Salvador Perez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .432 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CJ Carter Jensen LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carter Jensen
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JC Jac Caglianone LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jac Caglianone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 IC Isaac Collins SH .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Collins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LT Lane Thomas RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lane Thomas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MM Michael Massey LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Massey
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 NL Nick Loftin RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Loftin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 SM Starling Marte RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Starling Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Tyler Tolbert RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Tolbert
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-02 game page →