PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Freeland vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Freeland's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Freeland's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .301vs RHH xwOBA .358Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 28%Knuckle Curve 24%Cutter 19%Changeup 10%Sweeper 10%Sinker 10%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Freeland, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 504 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 641 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 AR Adley Rutschman SH .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TS Trevor Story RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Story
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 NS Nick Sogard SH .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Sogard
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CW Connor Wong RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.