PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Freeland vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Freeland's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Freeland's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .302vs RHH xwOBA .356Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 29%Knuckle Curve 23%Cutter 19%Sweeper 10%Changeup 10%Sinker 9%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Freeland, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JD Jarren Duran LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 599 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CW Connor Wong RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EW Eli White RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eli White
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.