PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Freeland vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Freeland's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Freeland's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .311vs RHH xwOBA .358Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 30%Knuckle Curve 24%Cutter 18%Sweeper 11%Changeup 10%Sinker 8%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Freeland, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 558 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MM Marcelo Mayer LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcelo Mayer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-24 game page →