PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Freeland vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Freeland's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Freeland's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .311vs RHH xwOBA .359Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 29%Knuckle Curve 23%Cutter 19%Sweeper 11%Changeup 10%Sinker 8%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Freeland, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 519 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 426 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .411 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.