PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Freeland vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Freeland's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Freeland's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .301vs RHH xwOBA .358Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 28%Knuckle Curve 24%Cutter 19%Changeup 10%Sweeper 10%Sinker 10%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Freeland, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 558 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 413 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.