PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Freeland vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Freeland's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Freeland's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .317vs RHH xwOBA .361Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 30%Knuckle Curve 24%Cutter 18%Sweeper 11%Changeup 10%Sinker 8%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Freeland, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 BL Brandon Lowe SH .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 405 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Jake Mangum SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JT Jared Triolo RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

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