PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Freeland vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Freeland's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Freeland's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .312vs RHH xwOBA .359Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 28%Knuckle Curve 24%Cutter 19%Changeup 10%Sinker 10%Sweeper 10%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Freeland, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LC Luis Campusano RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.