PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Freeland vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Freeland's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Freeland's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .301vs RHH xwOBA .356Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 28%Knuckle Curve 23%Cutter 19%Changeup 10%Sweeper 10%Sinker 10%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Freeland, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 401 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 531 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-15 game page →