PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Freeland vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Freeland's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Freeland's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .306vs RHH xwOBA .360Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 28%Knuckle Curve 24%Cutter 19%Changeup 10%Sinker 10%Sweeper 10%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Freeland, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 395 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .231 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 GC Griffin Conine LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .413 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 AR Agustín Ramírez RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Agustín Ramírez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.