PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Freeland vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Freeland's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Freeland's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .302vs RHH xwOBA .356Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 28%Knuckle Curve 23%Cutter 19%Sweeper 10%Changeup 10%Sinker 9%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Freeland, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .236 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 OC Owen Caissie LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 GC Griffin Conine LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 LJ Leo Jiménez RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leo Jiménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.