PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Freeland vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Freeland's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Freeland's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .312vs RHH xwOBA .361Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 29%Knuckle Curve 24%Cutter 18%Sweeper 11%Changeup 10%Sinker 8%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Freeland, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 OC Owen Caissie LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 JM Joe Mack LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 GP Graham Pauley LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Graham Pauley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-30 game page →