PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Freeland vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Freeland's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Freeland's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .301vs RHH xwOBA .358Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 28%Knuckle Curve 24%Cutter 19%Changeup 10%Sweeper 10%Sinker 10%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Freeland, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 JW Jordan Walker RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 AB Alec Burleson LHB .359
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 537 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.