PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Freeland vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Freeland's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Freeland's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .302vs RHH xwOBA .356Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 29%Knuckle Curve 23%Cutter 19%Sweeper 10%Changeup 10%Sinker 9%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Freeland, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .359
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 486 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 512 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BJ Blaze Jordan RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blaze Jordan
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (23% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-08 game page →