PITCHER MATCHUP
Kyle Freeland vs St. Louis Cardinals
How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Freeland's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.
Kyle Freeland's arsenal
Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .301vs RHH xwOBA .358Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 28%Knuckle Curve 24%Cutter 19%Changeup 10%Sweeper 10%Sinker 10%
How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project
Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Freeland, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.
Lineup avg xwOBA .316
-
1 JW Jordan Walker RHB .326
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
- Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (19% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (10% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
-
2 AB Alec Burleson LHB .359
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
- Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (19% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (10% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
-
3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .329
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
- Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (19% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (10% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
-
4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .329
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
- Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .305
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
- Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 537 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (10% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
6 NC Nathan Church LHB .296
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
- Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
7 JF José Fermín RHB .294
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
- Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
8 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .313
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
- Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (19% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (10% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
-
9 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .294
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
- Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.