PITCHER MATCHUP

Kohl Drake vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kohl Drake's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kohl Drake's arsenal

Throws LHPvs RHH xwOBA .331Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Changeup 21%Curveball 15%Slider 11%Cutter 11%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kohl Drake, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .354
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 469 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 521 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 442 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .238 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.