PITCHER MATCHUP

Kohl Drake vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kohl Drake's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kohl Drake's arsenal

Throws LHPSeasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Changeup 18%Curveball 14%Cutter 13%Slider 11%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kohl Drake, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 469 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 400 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .226 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 345 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.