PITCHER MATCHUP
Kohl Drake vs San Diego Padres
How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kohl Drake's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.
Kohl Drake's arsenal
Throws LHPvs RHH xwOBA .331Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Changeup 21%Curveball 15%Slider 11%Cutter 11%
How the San Diego Padres's regulars project
Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kohl Drake, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.
Lineup avg xwOBA .317
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1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .354
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 469 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (11% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .339
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
- Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (15% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (11% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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3 MM Manny Machado RHB .342
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
- Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 521 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (15% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .312
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
- Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 442 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .238 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (15% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (11% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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5 TF Ty France RHB .291
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
- Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (15% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .314
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
- Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (15% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .281
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
- Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (15% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .300
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
- Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (15% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9 ST Samad Taylor SH .321
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
- Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (15% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.