PITCHER MATCHUP
Kodai Senga vs Cincinnati Reds
How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kodai Senga's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.
Kodai Senga's arsenal
Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .339vs RHH xwOBA .310Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%FO 27%Cutter 20%Sweeper 8%Sinker 5%Slider 5%Curveball 1%
How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project
Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kodai Senga, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.
Lineup avg xwOBA .325
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1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .339
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- FO (27% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
- Cutter (20% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (5% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (5% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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2 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .348
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 570 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- FO (27% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
- Cutter (20% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (5% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (5% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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3 JB JJ Bleday LHB .337
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- FO (27% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
- Cutter (20% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (5% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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4 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .315
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- FO (27% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
- Cutter (20% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (5% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (5% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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5 MM Matt McLain RHB .321
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- FO (27% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
- Cutter (20% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (5% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (5% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .322
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- FO (27% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
- Cutter (20% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (5% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (5% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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7 NL Nathaniel Lowe LHB .335
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathaniel Lowe
- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 512 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- FO (27% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
- Cutter (20% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (5% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (5% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8 TF TJ Friedl LHB .310
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Friedl
- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- FO (27% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
- Cutter (20% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (5% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (5% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9 NM Noelvi Marte RHB .301
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Noelvi Marte
- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- FO (27% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
- Cutter (20% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (5% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.