PITCHER MATCHUP

Kodai Senga vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kodai Senga's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kodai Senga's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .333vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 36%FO 27%Cutter 19%Sweeper 8%Sinker 5%Slider 5%Curveball 1%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kodai Senga, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .330
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 575 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • FO (27% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 554 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • FO (27% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 511 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • FO (27% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .353
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 597 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • FO (27% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 615 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • FO (27% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 485 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • FO (27% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CK Carson Kelly RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • FO (27% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 MC Michael Conforto LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • FO (27% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 PR Pedro Ramírez SH .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Ramírez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • FO (27% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.