PITCHER MATCHUP

Kodai Senga vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kodai Senga's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kodai Senga's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .336vs RHH xwOBA .320Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 36%FO 28%Cutter 18%Sweeper 8%Sinker 5%Slider 4%Curveball 1%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kodai Senga, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 594 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • FO (28% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • FO (28% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • FO (28% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 612 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • FO (28% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • FO (28% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 PR Pedro Ramírez SH .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Ramírez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • FO (28% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MA Miguel Amaya RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Amaya
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • FO (28% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MS Matt Shaw RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Shaw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • FO (28% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 GA Gabriel Arias RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gabriel Arias
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • FO (28% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.