PITCHER MATCHUP

Kevin Gausman vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kevin Gausman's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kevin Gausman's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .299vs RHH xwOBA .305Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 53%Splitter 37%Slider 9%Sinker 1%Unknown 1%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kevin Gausman, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 AB Alex Bregman RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 469 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (37% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (37% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (37% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 IH Ian Happ SH .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (37% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 MB Michael Busch LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 499 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (37% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (37% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (37% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (37% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 MB Moisés Ballesteros LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Moisés Ballesteros
    • Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (37% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-19 game page →