PITCHER MATCHUP

Kevin Gausman vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kevin Gausman's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kevin Gausman's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .302vs RHH xwOBA .315Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 52%Splitter 38%Slider 9%Sinker 1%Unknown 1%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kevin Gausman, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 577 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (38% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (38% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 554 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (38% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 598 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (38% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 616 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (38% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (38% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 CK Carson Kelly RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 337 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (38% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 MC Michael Conforto LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 441 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (38% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 PR Pedro Ramírez SH .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Ramírez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (38% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.