PITCHER MATCHUP

Kevin Gausman vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kevin Gausman's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kevin Gausman's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .301vs RHH xwOBA .316Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 52%Splitter 37%Slider 9%Sinker 1%Unknown 1%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kevin Gausman, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 529 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (37% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 510 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (37% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MB Michael Busch LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (37% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (37% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 579 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (37% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (37% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 441 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (37% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (37% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (37% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.