PITCHER MATCHUP

Keider Montero vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Keider Montero's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Keider Montero's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .334vs RHH xwOBA .281Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 32%Slider 21%Sinker 20%Knuckle Curve 14%Changeup 13%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Keider Montero, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 BL Brandon Lowe SH .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 377 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JT Jared Triolo RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 364 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 HD Henry Davis RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JG Jacob Gonzalez LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jacob Gonzalez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-18 game page →