PITCHER MATCHUP

Keider Montero vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Keider Montero's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Keider Montero's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .338vs RHH xwOBA .287Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Slider 21%Sinker 20%Knuckle Curve 14%Changeup 13%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Keider Montero, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 575 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 465 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 435 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-22 game page →