PITCHER MATCHUP

Keider Montero vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Keider Montero's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Keider Montero's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .336vs RHH xwOBA .284Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 32%Slider 21%Sinker 20%Knuckle Curve 14%Changeup 13%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Keider Montero, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 453 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .404
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .426 xwOBA over 383 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .424 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 446 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.