PITCHER MATCHUP

Keider Montero vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Keider Montero's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Keider Montero's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .344vs RHH xwOBA .296Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Slider 21%Sinker 18%Knuckle Curve 14%Changeup 13%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Keider Montero, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .398
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .406 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .419 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .412 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CS Cam Smith RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 BM Brice Matthews RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Matthews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 JM Jake Meyers RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Meyers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (14% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-26 game page →