PITCHER MATCHUP
Justin Wrobleski vs Pittsburgh Pirates
How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Justin Wrobleski's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.
Justin Wrobleski's arsenal
Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .315vs RHH xwOBA .311Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 42%Slider 29%Sinker 11%Curveball 8%Cutter 6%Changeup 4%Sweeper 1%
How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project
Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Justin Wrobleski, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.
Lineup avg xwOBA .318
-
1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .332
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
- Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 482 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (29% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (11% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (6% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .332
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
- Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (29% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (11% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (6% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .310
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
- Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (29% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (6% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (4% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
4 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .305
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
- Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (29% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (4% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .325
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
- Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (29% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (11% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (6% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (4% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
-
6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .355
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
- Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (29% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (6% usage) projects to .412 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
7 JM Jake Mangum SH .301
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
- Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (29% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (11% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (6% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (4% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
8 HD Henry Davis RHB .292
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
- Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (29% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
9 JT Jared Triolo RHB .311
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
- Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (29% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (11% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (6% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (4% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.