PITCHER MATCHUP

Justin Verlander vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Justin Verlander's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Justin Verlander's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .329vs RHH xwOBA .313Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 46%Slider 22%Curveball 16%Changeup 9%Sweeper 6%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Justin Verlander, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 564 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 400 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-26 game page →