PITCHER MATCHUP

Justin Verlander vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Justin Verlander's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Justin Verlander's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .327vs RHH xwOBA .314Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 46%Slider 22%Curveball 16%Changeup 9%Sweeper 6%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Justin Verlander, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 569 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jake Mangum SH .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 HD Henry Davis RHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.