PITCHER MATCHUP

Joey Cantillo vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Joey Cantillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Joey Cantillo's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .339vs RHH xwOBA .293Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Changeup 28%Curveball 23%Slider 7%Cutter 3%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Joey Cantillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (23% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 SS Spencer Steer RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Steer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 467 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (23% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 568 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (23% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JB JJ Bleday LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (23% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 491 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (23% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (23% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 NL Nathaniel Lowe LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathaniel Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 511 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (23% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TF TJ Friedl LHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Friedl
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (23% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NM Noelvi Marte RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Noelvi Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (23% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-29 game page →