PITCHER MATCHUP

Joey Cantillo vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Joey Cantillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Joey Cantillo's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .345vs RHH xwOBA .301Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 37%Changeup 27%Curveball 26%Slider 6%Cutter 5%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Joey Cantillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 605 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JB JJ Bleday LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MM Matt McLain RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DM Dane Myers RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 TF TJ Friedl LHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Friedl
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 461 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ke'Bryan Hayes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.