PITCHER MATCHUP

Joey Cantillo vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Joey Cantillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Joey Cantillo's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .335vs RHH xwOBA .293Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Changeup 29%Curveball 22%Slider 7%Cutter 3%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Joey Cantillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 BL Brandon Lowe SH .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 499 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JM Jake Mangum SH .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .409 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-18 game page →