PITCHER MATCHUP

Joey Cantillo vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Joey Cantillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Joey Cantillo's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .347vs RHH xwOBA .293Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 37%Changeup 27%Curveball 25%Slider 6%Cutter 4%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Joey Cantillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 544 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.