PITCHER MATCHUP

Joey Cantillo vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Joey Cantillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Joey Cantillo's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .341vs RHH xwOBA .297Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 37%Changeup 27%Curveball 26%Slider 6%Cutter 5%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Joey Cantillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 473 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 536 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 524 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LC Luis Campusano RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.