PITCHER MATCHUP

Joey Cantillo vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Joey Cantillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Joey Cantillo's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .339vs RHH xwOBA .300Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 36%Changeup 27%Curveball 26%Slider 6%Cutter 5%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Joey Cantillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.