PITCHER MATCHUP

Joey Cantillo vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Joey Cantillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Joey Cantillo's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .347vs RHH xwOBA .294Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Changeup 28%Curveball 24%Slider 7%Cutter 3%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Joey Cantillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (24% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (24% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 490 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (24% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (24% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (24% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (24% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (24% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 498 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (24% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (24% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-15 game page →