PITCHER MATCHUP

Joey Cantillo vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Joey Cantillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Joey Cantillo's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .341vs RHH xwOBA .297Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 37%Changeup 27%Curveball 26%Slider 6%Cutter 5%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Joey Cantillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .327
  1. 1 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 494 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JN Josh Naylor LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 535 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 581 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 558 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 637 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 WW Weston Wilson RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.