PITCHER MATCHUP

Joey Cantillo vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Joey Cantillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Joey Cantillo's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .326vs RHH xwOBA .304Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 41%Changeup 29%Curveball 20%Slider 8%Cutter 2%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Joey Cantillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .330
  1. 1 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CY Cole Young LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JN Josh Naylor LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 474 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LR Luke Raley LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Raley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 CR Cal Raleigh SH .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 536 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 RR Rob Refsnyder RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rob Refsnyder
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 MG Mitch Garver RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mitch Garver
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-26 game page →