PITCHER MATCHUP

Joey Cantillo vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Joey Cantillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Joey Cantillo's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .328vs RHH xwOBA .308Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 42%Changeup 29%Curveball 19%Slider 9%Cutter 1%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Joey Cantillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (19% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .400
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .408 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (19% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CS Cam Smith RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (19% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BM Brice Matthews RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Matthews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .277
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JM Jake Meyers RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Meyers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (19% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-20 game page →