PITCHER MATCHUP

Joey Cantillo vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Joey Cantillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Joey Cantillo's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .342vs RHH xwOBA .300Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 37%Changeup 27%Curveball 26%Slider 6%Cutter 5%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Joey Cantillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 495 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .393
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .414 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 488 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 470 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (26% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.