PITCHER MATCHUP

Joe Ryan vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Joe Ryan's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Joe Ryan's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .297vs RHH xwOBA .266Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Sweeper 14%Splitter 12%Sinker 11%Slider 8%Knuckle Curve 6%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Joe Ryan, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 426 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .387
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .407 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .406 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (6% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (6% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .240 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (6% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 413 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (6% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BM Brice Matthews RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Matthews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (6% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .401 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (6% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .272
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (6% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-30 game page →