PITCHER MATCHUP

Joe Ryan vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Joe Ryan's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Joe Ryan's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .300vs RHH xwOBA .272Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Sweeper 14%Splitter 13%Sinker 11%Slider 8%Knuckle Curve 7%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Joe Ryan, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .395
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .425 xwOBA over 385 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .405 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CW Christian Walker RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 336 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 395 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 336 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .273
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.