PITCHER MATCHUP

Joe Ryan vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Joe Ryan's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Joe Ryan's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .304vs RHH xwOBA .276Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 47%Sweeper 15%Splitter 13%Sinker 10%Slider 8%Knuckle Curve 7%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Joe Ryan, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .383
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .415 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .405 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BM Brice Matthews RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Matthews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.