PITCHER MATCHUP

Jedixson Paez vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jedixson Paez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jedixson Paez's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .446Seasons 2026
Changeup 31%Four-Seam Fastball 23%Curveball 19%Sinker 14%Cutter 13%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jedixson Paez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .324
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (19% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (19% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 588 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 559 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (19% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 642 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (19% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .441 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 545 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (19% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 WW Weston Wilson RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.