PITCHER MATCHUP

Javier Assad vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Javier Assad's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Javier Assad's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .356vs RHH xwOBA .318Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 38%Cutter 19%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Sweeper 9%Curveball 8%Changeup 6%Slider 3%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Javier Assad, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 SS Spencer Steer RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Steer
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 553 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 MM Matt McLain RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 482 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JB JJ Bleday LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .229 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 NL Nathaniel Lowe LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathaniel Lowe
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 507 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 TF TJ Friedl LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Friedl
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .228 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-11 game page →