PITCHER MATCHUP

Javier Assad vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Javier Assad's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Javier Assad's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .353vs RHH xwOBA .310Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 39%Cutter 17%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Sweeper 9%Curveball 8%Changeup 6%Slider 3%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Javier Assad, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Sinker (39% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Sinker (39% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 589 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JB JJ Bleday LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Sinker (39% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Sinker (39% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 519 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MM Matt McLain RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Sinker (39% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Sinker (39% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .212 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TF TJ Friedl LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Friedl
    • Sinker (39% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 453 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .224 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 DM Dane Myers RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Sinker (39% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ke'Bryan Hayes
    • Sinker (39% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .226 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.