PITCHER MATCHUP

Javier Assad vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Javier Assad's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Javier Assad's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .357vs RHH xwOBA .312Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 39%Cutter 18%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Sweeper 9%Curveball 8%Changeup 6%Slider 3%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Javier Assad, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Sinker (39% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 489 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Sinker (39% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Sinker (39% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Sinker (39% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Sinker (39% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 520 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Sinker (39% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Sinker (39% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Sinker (39% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .209 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 BJ Blaze Jordan RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blaze Jordan
    • Sinker (39% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.