PITCHER MATCHUP

Jared Jones vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jared Jones's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jared Jones's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .367vs RHH xwOBA .272Seasons 2026–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 45%Slider 34%Changeup 11%Curveball 9%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jared Jones, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (34% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 SS Spencer Steer RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Steer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (34% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Matt McLain RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (34% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 531 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (34% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (34% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 472 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (34% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JB JJ Bleday LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (34% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NL Nathaniel Lowe LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathaniel Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 499 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (34% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BD Blake Dunn RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blake Dunn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (34% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-27 game page →