PITCHER MATCHUP

Jared Jones vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jared Jones's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jared Jones's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .308vs RHH xwOBA .303Seasons 2026–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 47%Slider 35%Changeup 10%Curveball 8%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jared Jones, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 435 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JD Jarren Duran LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 609 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 426 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 AR Adley Rutschman SH .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CW Connor Wong RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (35% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

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