PITCHER MATCHUP

Jared Jones vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jared Jones's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jared Jones's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .316vs RHH xwOBA .269Seasons 2026–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 47%Slider 33%Changeup 11%Curveball 9%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jared Jones, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (33% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (33% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (33% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (33% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 575 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (33% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 465 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (33% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 435 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (33% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (33% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (33% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-24 game page →