PITCHER MATCHUP

Jared Jones vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jared Jones's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jared Jones's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .346vs RHH xwOBA .285Seasons 2026–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Slider 34%Changeup 12%Curveball 10%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jared Jones, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 583 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (34% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (34% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 AR Austin Riley RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (34% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (34% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MH Michael Harris II LHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (34% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (34% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (34% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DS Dominic Smith LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (34% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JM Jorge Mateo RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorge Mateo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (34% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-08 game page →