PITCHER MATCHUP

Jake Irvin vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jake Irvin's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jake Irvin's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .374vs RHH xwOBA .318Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 32%Curveball 28%Sinker 21%Changeup 7%Cutter 7%Sweeper 3%Slider 2%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jake Irvin, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 510 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 509 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 414 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 522 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-07 game page →