PITCHER MATCHUP

Jacob Lopez vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob Lopez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jacob Lopez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .276vs RHH xwOBA .307Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Slider 31%Cutter 17%Changeup 11%Sinker 6%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob Lopez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 575 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JB JJ Bleday LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 395 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 499 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MM Matt McLain RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 337 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 TF TJ Friedl LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Friedl
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NM Noelvi Marte RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Noelvi Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 DM Dane Myers RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-05 game page →