PITCHER MATCHUP

Jacob Lopez vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob Lopez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jacob Lopez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .281vs RHH xwOBA .309Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Slider 31%Cutter 16%Changeup 11%Sinker 6%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob Lopez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JD Jarren Duran LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 595 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .361
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .411 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CW Connor Wong RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-29 game page →