PITCHER MATCHUP

Jacob Lopez vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob Lopez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jacob Lopez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .285vs RHH xwOBA .303Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Slider 32%Cutter 18%Changeup 11%Sinker 4%Unknown 1%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob Lopez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 645 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .353
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .407 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CM Curtis Mead RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Curtis Mead
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.