PITCHER MATCHUP

Jacob Lopez vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob Lopez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jacob Lopez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .276vs RHH xwOBA .302Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Slider 33%Cutter 18%Changeup 10%Sinker 5%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob Lopez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (33% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 411 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JN Josh Naylor LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 524 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (33% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (33% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 576 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (33% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 555 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (33% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (33% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 629 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (33% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 529 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (33% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 WW Weston Wilson RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (33% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-13 game page →