PITCHER MATCHUP

Jacob Lopez vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob Lopez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jacob Lopez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .272vs RHH xwOBA .301Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Slider 32%Cutter 18%Changeup 11%Sinker 5%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob Lopez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .354
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 441 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 436 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS George Springer RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JS Jesús Sánchez LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jesús Sánchez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MS Myles Straw RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-07 game page →