PITCHER MATCHUP

Jacob Lopez vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob Lopez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jacob Lopez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .285vs RHH xwOBA .303Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Slider 32%Cutter 18%Changeup 11%Sinker 4%Unknown 1%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob Lopez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .324
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .388
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .418 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.