PITCHER MATCHUP

Jacob Lopez vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob Lopez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jacob Lopez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .271vs RHH xwOBA .302Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Slider 32%Cutter 18%Changeup 11%Sinker 5%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob Lopez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .324
  1. 1 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .391
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .422 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .417 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CW Christian Walker RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-22 game page →