PITCHER MATCHUP
Jacob deGrom vs Boston Red Sox
How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob deGrom's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.
Jacob deGrom's arsenal
Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .293vs RHH xwOBA .285Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 45%Slider 37%Changeup 12%Curveball 6%Sinker 1%
How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project
Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob deGrom, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.
Lineup avg xwOBA .307
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1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .312
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
- Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 398 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (37% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (6% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .295
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
- Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 550 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (37% usage) projects to .235 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (12% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (6% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .302
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
- Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (37% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (6% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .330
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
- Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (37% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (6% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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5 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .305
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
- Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (37% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (12% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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6 MM Marcelo Mayer LHB .303
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcelo Mayer
- Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (37% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (12% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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7 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .319
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
- Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (37% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (12% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (6% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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8 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .301
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
- Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (37% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (6% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9 IK Isiah Kiner-Falefa RHB .297
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isiah Kiner-Falefa
- Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (37% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (6% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.