PITCHER MATCHUP

Jacob deGrom vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob deGrom's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jacob deGrom's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .289vs RHH xwOBA .283Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 36%Changeup 13%Curveball 6%Sinker 2%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob deGrom, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .306
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 645 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CM Curtis Mead RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Curtis Mead
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.