PITCHER MATCHUP

Jacob deGrom vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob deGrom's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jacob deGrom's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .286vs RHH xwOBA .282Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 37%Changeup 12%Curveball 6%Sinker 2%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob deGrom, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .299
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 639 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AR Adley Rutschman SH .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TS Trevor Story RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Story
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CW Connor Wong RHB .276
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NS Nick Sogard SH .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Sogard
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.