PITCHER MATCHUP

Jacob deGrom vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob deGrom's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jacob deGrom's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .289vs RHH xwOBA .283Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 36%Changeup 13%Curveball 6%Sinker 2%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob deGrom, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .300
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 498 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .265
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 520 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .245
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .232 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .258
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .234 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.