PITCHER MATCHUP

Jacob deGrom vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob deGrom's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jacob deGrom's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .291vs RHH xwOBA .284Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 37%Changeup 12%Curveball 6%Sinker 1%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob deGrom, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .301
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 345 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .265
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 502 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .252
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .236 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 RP Richie Palacios LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .262
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .237 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-05 game page →