PITCHER MATCHUP

Jacob deGrom vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob deGrom's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jacob deGrom's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .289vs RHH xwOBA .283Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 36%Changeup 13%Curveball 6%Sinker 2%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob deGrom, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .401 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .236 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .269
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .234 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LC Luis Campusano RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.