PITCHER MATCHUP

Jacob deGrom vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob deGrom's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jacob deGrom's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .293vs RHH xwOBA .285Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 45%Slider 37%Changeup 12%Curveball 6%Sinker 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob deGrom, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 413 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 433 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  8. 8 RD Rodolfo Durán RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rodolfo Durán
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-19 game page →