PITCHER MATCHUP

Jacob deGrom vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob deGrom's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jacob deGrom's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .287vs RHH xwOBA .281Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 36%Changeup 13%Curveball 6%Sinker 2%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob deGrom, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 463 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 528 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 515 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .232 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .269
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .233 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.