PITCHER MATCHUP

Jacob deGrom vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob deGrom's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jacob deGrom's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .291vs RHH xwOBA .285Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 37%Changeup 12%Curveball 6%Sinker 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob deGrom, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 475 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 488 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .268
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .240 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.