PITCHER MATCHUP

Jacob deGrom vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob deGrom's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jacob deGrom's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .289vs RHH xwOBA .283Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 36%Changeup 13%Curveball 6%Sinker 2%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob deGrom, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 569 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .362
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .414 xwOBA over 549 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CM Coby Mayo RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CC Colton Cowser LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JH Jackson Holliday LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Holliday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .274
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .238 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BA Blaze Alexander RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blaze Alexander
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.