PITCHER MATCHUP

Jacob deGrom vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob deGrom's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jacob deGrom's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .292vs RHH xwOBA .286Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 45%Slider 37%Changeup 12%Curveball 6%Sinker 1%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob deGrom, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .224 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 CN Connor Norby RHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Norby
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 OC Owen Caissie LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JM Joe Mack LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-24 game page →