PITCHER MATCHUP

Jacob deGrom vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob deGrom's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jacob deGrom's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .287vs RHH xwOBA .281Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 36%Changeup 13%Curveball 6%Sinker 2%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob deGrom, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .226 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 480 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 403 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 GC Griffin Conine LHB .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .409 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AR Agustín Ramírez RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Agustín Ramírez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.