PITCHER MATCHUP

Jacob deGrom vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob deGrom's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jacob deGrom's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .289vs RHH xwOBA .283Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 36%Changeup 13%Curveball 6%Sinker 2%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob deGrom, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .224 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 OC Owen Caissie LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 GC Griffin Conine LHB .367
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .444 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.