PITCHER MATCHUP

Jacob deGrom vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob deGrom's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jacob deGrom's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .291vs RHH xwOBA .286Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 37%Changeup 12%Curveball 6%Sinker 1%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob deGrom, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .231 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OC Owen Caissie LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JM Joe Mack LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 GC Griffin Conine LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.