PITCHER MATCHUP

Jacob deGrom vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob deGrom's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jacob deGrom's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .291vs RHH xwOBA .284Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 37%Changeup 12%Curveball 6%Sinker 1%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob deGrom, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 475 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JN Josh Naylor LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 518 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 565 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 552 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .406 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 620 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 516 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 WW Weston Wilson RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.