PITCHER MATCHUP

Jacob deGrom vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob deGrom's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jacob deGrom's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .291vs RHH xwOBA .285Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 37%Changeup 12%Curveball 6%Sinker 1%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob deGrom, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CY Cole Young LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 523 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 504 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CR Cal Raleigh SH .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 574 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luke Raley LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Raley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .359
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .415 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 CE Colt Emerson LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Emerson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-26 game page →