PITCHER MATCHUP

Jacob deGrom vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob deGrom's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jacob deGrom's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .289vs RHH xwOBA .283Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 36%Changeup 13%Curveball 6%Sinker 2%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob deGrom, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 588 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 559 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .407 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 642 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 545 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 WW Weston Wilson RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.