PITCHER MATCHUP

Jacob deGrom vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob deGrom's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jacob deGrom's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .289vs RHH xwOBA .283Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 36%Changeup 13%Curveball 6%Sinker 2%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob deGrom, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .303
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .270
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .273
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .235 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MS Myles Straw RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JS Josh Smith LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.