PITCHER MATCHUP

Jacob deGrom vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob deGrom's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jacob deGrom's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .289vs RHH xwOBA .283Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 36%Changeup 13%Curveball 6%Sinker 2%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob deGrom, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .278
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .238 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .398
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .422 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .424 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.