PITCHER MATCHUP

Jacob deGrom vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob deGrom's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jacob deGrom's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .286vs RHH xwOBA .282Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 37%Changeup 12%Curveball 6%Sinker 2%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob deGrom, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .277
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 495 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .237 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .397
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .420 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .428 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 488 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 470 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .271
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.