PITCHER MATCHUP

Jacob deGrom vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jacob deGrom's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jacob deGrom's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .291vs RHH xwOBA .285Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 37%Changeup 12%Curveball 6%Sinker 1%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jacob deGrom, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .412
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .428 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .437 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CW Christian Walker RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .270
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-01 game page →