PITCHER MATCHUP

Jackson Kent vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jackson Kent's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jackson Kent's arsenal

Throws LHPvs RHH xwOBA .363Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 31%Changeup 19%Curveball 17%Slider 17%Sinker 16%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jackson Kent, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 453 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 398 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 515 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 512 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 385 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 427 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .221 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .232 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 524 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .240 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-09 game page →