PITCHER MATCHUP

Jack Leiter vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jack Leiter's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jack Leiter's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .340vs RHH xwOBA .323Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Slider 22%Changeup 17%Sinker 10%Curveball 9%Cutter 4%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jack Leiter, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 398 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 550 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MM Marcelo Mayer LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcelo Mayer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 IK Isiah Kiner-Falefa RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isiah Kiner-Falefa
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.