PITCHER MATCHUP

Jack Leiter vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jack Leiter's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jack Leiter's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .345vs RHH xwOBA .321Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Slider 22%Changeup 16%Sinker 10%Curveball 9%Cutter 4%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jack Leiter, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JD Jarren Duran LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 595 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 CW Connor Wong RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.